Analysis & Assessments

Analysis & Assessment Guide



Intelligensis' Assessment Guide

In order to clearly convey the judgements contained in Intelligensis’ analytics products, it is crucial for the reader to have a clear objective understanding of the confidence, probability and threat levels expressed in order to derive the most analytical value from the report.

Confidence Levels

Confidence Level
Criteria
High Confidence
  • Multiple corroborating sources of high credibility.
  • Extensive and well-documented evidence supporting the conclusion.
  • Minimal ambiguity or conflicting data.
Medium Confidence
  • Several reliable sources supporting the conclusion.
  • Solid evidence, but with minor inconsistencies or gaps that do not fundamentally challenge the conclusion.
  • Some level of ambiguity that doesn’t significantly weaken the case.
Low Confidence
  • Limited or unreliable sources supporting the conclusion.
  • Inconsistent or contradictory evidence that prevents the formation of a clear narrative.
  • Substantial ambiguity or missing critical information.

Probability Scale

Probability Level
Description
Very Likely
A high likelihood of the event occurring based on the evidence.
Likely
A high likelihood of the event occurring based on the evidence.
Possible
Some evidence or indication, but not strong enough to conclude with confidence.
Unlikely
Evidence against the event happening, but it cannot be ruled out entirely.
Very Unlikely
Very low probability of the event occurring based on the available evidence.

Threat Assessment Scale

Risk Level Description
Critical Risk
Situations that present an immediate and severe threat to security or stability. Immediate and decisive response required.
High Risk
Situations with significant potential for negative impact on security or stability. Actions may be required to mitigate risks.
Moderate Risk
Situations with potential to escalate but not immediately dangerous. Precautionary measures should be considered.
Low Risk
Situations with minimal immediate threat to security or stability. Actions may not be required immediately, but routine monitoring is advised.

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