Security Forecast for the 2023 General Elections in Nigeria
February 18, 2023STRATEGIC WARNING: THREAT ALONG GHANA’S NORTHERN BORDER
Increasing Insurgent Activity along Ghana’s Border with Burkina Faso
Key Judgements
- There has been increasing incidents of insurgent attacks along Ghana’s border with Burkina Faso following the coup d'état there in January 2022.
- Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) members are becoming more aggressive and venturing further south towards Ghana, Togo and Benin.
- This development is a significant threat to Ghanaians along the border with Burkina Faso.
- Ghana Armed Forces along with other National Security agencies must secure Ghana’s borders and harden likely targets in border towns, especially, in the north and north east of the country.
Map 1.1: The location of incidents involving JNIM between 1st January – 11th May 2022 according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) database.
The map shows a southward advance of JNIM towards the northern borders of Ghana, Togo & Benin.
Background
- On early Wednesday 11th May 2022, a group of about 60 heavily armed gunmen attacked a Togolese army post in Kpinkankandi within the Kpendjal Prefecture in Northern Togo near its border with Burkina Faso (to the north). Eight soldiers were killed and 13 were wounded. There was a similar attack by an unidentified group on a nearby town Sanloaga in November 2021.
- Although no group has claimed responsibility for the attack in Togo yet, the Tactics, Techniques & Procedures (TTP) of the attack were very similar to the TTP used by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) attacks in Benin late last year.
- Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims — JNIM) is an amalgamation of Salifi-Jihadist insurgency groups operating in the Sahal region of Sub-Saharan Africa since 2017. JNIM's has expanded its territory across the sub-region through violent attacks on security forces and by exploiting grievances of under-served poor local citizens in the areas they operate in to gain influence.
- Although most of JNIM activities have been heavily concentrated in southern Mali, northern Burkina Faso and south-western Niger over the past few years, the group has started venturing further south towards the northern borders of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin in 2022 especially following the recent coup in Burkina Faso.
- In an incident on 16 February 2022, militants suspected to be members of JNIM attacked a police and security guard position in the village of Youga (Zabre, Boulgou) in Burkina Faso just 2km from the border with Ghana. Two policemen were also wounded and a container set ablaze by the militants. There have also been several other incidents close to the Ghana border in the past few months.
- While recorded JNIM activity in Burkina Faso witnessed a marginal decline during April 2022, most likely due to Ramadan, the group’s activity is expected to increase over the coming months. With the difficult and deteriorating economic situation in Burkina Faso coupled with growing food insecurity, JNIM members are likely to become more aggressive and adventurous in the quest for resources thereby increasing the appeal of extending their skirmishes across the border into Northern Ghana.
Assessment
- JNIM has adopted a “Hit & Run” strategy which involves a significant number of lightly armed militants launching a surprise attack often against smaller security force units and poorly defended buildings. This strategy appears to serve JNIM’s objective of expanding its reach and is likely to continue for the short to medium term.
- As JNIM has demonstrated in southern Mali and Northern Burkina Faso, after several months of skirmishes and surprise attacks, the group will likely seek to establish a foothold in new territories along Burkina Faso’s border with Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin. If this happens, JNIM members are very begin rent-seeking behavior and attempting to blend in with the local population.
- The increasing presence and activity of JNIM insurgents along Ghana’s border with Burkina Faso and Togo increase the likelihood of an attack on Ghanaian towns, civilians and security service personnel in border towns.
- Given the deteriorating economic climate in Burkina Faso and relatively poor socio-economic environment in Northern Ghana, JNIM is likely to expand its ranks by recruiting young and unemployed youth from underprivileged backgrounds and subsequently radicalize them to carry out attacks.
- The Burkinabe government and security forces are unlikely to be able to contain JNIM insurgents outside the urban areas of the country. Therefore, Ghana along with Cote d’Ivoire, Togo and Benin will have to tighten their northern borders and harden likely targets within their respective border towns.
English
العربية
简体中文
Nederlands
Français
Deutsch
Italiano
Português
Русский
Español