M23’s Advances & Security Dynamics in North Kivu

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ESCALATION & RESPONSE: ANALYZING M23’S ADVANCEMENTS AND THE REGIONAL DYNAMICS IN NORTH KIVU

Critical Situation Alert

Analysts: Moreblessing Takura Madzikatire & Samuele Minelli Zuffa
Senior Editor: Magdalena Breyer

What You Should Know

Since September 2023, March 23 (M23) rebels have intensified their violent activities in North Kivu, seizing considerable territory and progressively advancing towards the provincial capital, Goma.
By February 2024, they had surrounded the Goma district, cutting off its primary supply routes and maintaining a posing a continued threat of expansion towards Goma.
M23's calculated advancements towards Goma, significantly supported by RDF, make it very likely that they will reassert control over the region’s capital. This situation is exacerbated by the limited effectiveness of the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) and the Southern African Development Community Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (SAMIRDC), whose efforts to counter these advances will unlikely be effective.
RDF’s ongoing involvement and M23's aggressive strategies will very likely exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in North Kivu, increasing civilian casualties and displacement.
The conflict’s intensification is likely to increase regional tensions and challenge international diplomatic efforts, affecting the broader dynamics of regional security and cooperation.

Threat Assessment

See Our Analysis & Assessment Guide

Situation Overview

M23 has seized considerable territory and advanced progressively towards North Kivu’s capital Goma since September 2023, leading to a widespread humanitarian crisis. The territorial ambitions of the Rwandan-backed M23 rebels, supported by the RDF, has led to an escalation of clashes with FARDC around key strategic locations, including the town of Sake which is crucial for sustaining logistical connections to Goma. The violence has caused the mass displacement of civilians, with thousands fleeing their homes amid M23’s growing indiscriminate bombings, a tactic consistently employed by the group since its reemergence in late 2021. Violence has displaced around 42,000 people from Masisi Territory alone as of early February 2024, with many heading toward Goma for safety.

Incidents like a rocket impacting near a university in Goma exacerbate the crisis, underscoring M23's approach and the immediate threat to the urban center. Countries such as the USA have condemned the escalation of hostilities and urged Rwanda to cease its support for M23 and withdraw its forces from the DRC. This resurgence of M23 ties into the eastern DRC's intricate conflict history, notably influenced by the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Originating in April 2012 from a mutiny within the National Congress for the Defense of the People (CNDP), M23 has consistently criticized the DRC government for failing to adhere to peace agreements, particularly regarding the integration of its fighters into the national army and the release of imprisoned members. This group, largely composed of ethnic Tutsis, has cited government non-compliance and discrimination as key motivators for their actions. Despite officially ending their rebellion in December 2013 after signing The Addis Ababa Agreement, M23's return to arms in late 2021 underscores the ongoing challenges in addressing the root causes of the conflict, such as ethnic tension, economic exploitation, and the complex dynamics of regional and international politics.

In response to the escalating situation, various forces have mobilized to defend Goma. FARDC, while operating with limited resources, is collaborating with several militias known as Wazalendo ("patriots" in Swahili), regional forces, and private military contractors from Europe. Former French Foreign Legion soldiers are providing training and technical assistance to FARDC, occasionally assisting in strategising plans. Burundi has dispatched around 2,000 troops to support FARDC. SADC has deployed 2,900 South African soldiers and personnel from Tanzania and Malawi to replace Eastern African Community (EAC) forces. Uganda, having played a significant role in previous conflicts within the DRC, presently maintains an ambiguous position in the current conflict, evidenced by its alleged non-intervention regarding the transit of M23 rebels through its territory into the DRC. This concerted effort to safeguard Goma amid ongoing hostilities reflects the broader regional and international stakes in stabilising the eastern DRC and addressing the deep-seated issues fueling the conflict.

The Importance of Goma to M23

Goma is a central economic hub in the eastern DRC, serving as a key trading centre and gateway for cross-border trade with neighbouring countries like Rwanda and Uganda. Control over Goma will very likely enable M23 to gain access to resources, tax revenue, and control over the local economy.
The surrounding area of Goma is rich in natural resources, including minerals like gold, tin, coltan, and diamonds. Rebel groups often exploit these resources to fund their operations. Gaining control of Goma will very likely enable rebel groups to access and potentially monopolize these valuable natural resources, significantly boosting their financial capabilities and operational sustainability.
Goma's location, bordering Rwanda and near Uganda, facilitates the potential for M23 to obtain external support, including weapons, supplies, and recruits, while also enabling easier cross-border movements of rebels. This situation poses challenges for government forces in monitoring and effectively countering rebel activities.
The strategic position of Goma enables M23 to exert influence and control over the region. Securing and maintaining control of Goma will very likely allow the group to contest the authority of the central government and implement its own governance systems, possibly paving the way for arrangements involving the sharing of political power.
The strategic position of Goma is crucial for M23 due to its potential for enhancing the group's leverage in negotiations, attracting international assistance, and reinforcing their presence in the region. Securing Goma, as seen in 2012, positions M23 to pursue diplomatic engagement, advocate for the recognition of their governance, and facilitate access to humanitarian resources for areas under their control.

Analysis & Implications

Escalation of Conflict and Humanitarian Impacts

RDF’s ongoing and intensified involvement will very likely escalate the conflict further, very likely resulting in worsening humanitarian conditions and constraining the operational capabilities of FARDC and its allied forces. The employment of explosives and remote violence has very likely compelled the FARDC into a defensive posture, likely causing considerable logistical and operational challenges that complicate the DRC's military response. The escalating operations and bolstered confidence of M23, augmented by RDF support, will very likely overextend the DRC’s allied forces. These forces will very likely struggle with managing territorial control and ensuring civilian safety, a challenge magnified by Goma's extensive area and high population density. RDF assistance is likely to enhance M23’s technological and logistical capabilities, likely further compounding the pressure on the already overstretched DRC’s allied forces. M23 will likely continue employing the strategy of indiscriminate bombings to diminish FARDC’s offensive capabilities. This trend will very likely lead to an escalation in civilian casualties and destruction of infrastructure, very likely increasing displacement, food insecurity, and health issues. As M23 progresses with RDF support, fatalities and displacement are likely to escalate, further exacerbating the humanitarian situation due to damaged infrastructure and logistical hurdles.

Challenges in Defending Goma

M23 will likely be able to reassert control over Goma considering the current trajectory and unfolding events. The group's strategic occupation of critical locations such as Sake very likely serves to undermine the government’s defensive positions, likely indicating that M23's advance is methodological and aimed at strategically isolating Goma. This action will very likely disrupt FARDC's supply lines, very likely increasing Goma's vulnerability to siege. FARDC will unlikely be able to stop M23’s advancement toward Goma given its limited capacities and SAMIDRC’s lack of terrain and guerilla warfare expertise. The collective defense efforts of the government, involving Wazalendo, SAMIDRC, and international forces, will likely face challenges in countering M23, attributed to the likely issues with cohesion and trust among these groups.

Stakeholder and Sectoral Impacts

The likely seizure of Goma will have far-reaching implications for different stakeholders and sectors. The immediate and most affected stakeholders will very likely be civilians in the conflict zones, very likely facing risks of exacerbated violence, displacement, and loss of livelihoods. M23’s use of remote explosives and advanced weapons will very likely continue to cause substantial humanitarian challenges and civilian fatalities. Neighboring countries will likely face increased security threats, an influx of refugees, and economic disruptions. They will likely pursue their strategic interests despite having a vested interest in a stable DRC, likely complicating the conflict. Trade and natural resource extraction in the region will likely be severely impacted, with companies operating in the region likely facing disruptions and increased security risks.

Regional and International Ramifications

M23 retaking Goma will likely escalate the current violence into a full-scale regional conflict, with the conflict possibly transforming into a global proxy war with significant implications for both regional and international stability. The involvement of troops from at least six countries very likely signals a high risk of escalating into a broader regional conflict. M23's retaking of Goma is very likely to escalate military actions, which will likely lead to an increase in the deployment of troops and heavy weapons, possibly causing widespread destruction and displacement. The participation of South Africa as part of SAMIDRC will possibly amplify the conflict into a more extensive international proxy war, especially considering South Africa's connections with BRICS nations such as Russia and China, alongside Rwanda and Uganda's historical backing from the US and Western allies. It is likely that an intricate web of international alliances will form. The competition for natural resources, coupled with the ambition to control the significant mineral wealth around Goma, will possibly escalate this tense situation into a third Congo war in the upcoming months. This conflict is likely to pose substantial challenges to sovereignty, internal security, and stability. Efforts to maintain control and protect civilians, while crucial, are very likely to encounter difficulties due to the involvement of foreign troops and the complexities of internal governance.

Forecast

Based on the comprehensive analysis provided in the report, the threat level within the eastern regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), particularly in North Kivu, will very likely remain at a Critical Risk over the next three months. This forecast is influenced by several critical factors:

The international demand for critical minerals, which continues to rise, will likely further conflict over resource-rich territories.
An escalation in regional mobilization efforts through the SAMIDRC, aimed at addressing the security challenges.
Rwanda's continued interest in maintaining its influence in the eastern DRC, coupled with the DRC's determination to assert control over its mineral-rich eastern territories.
The humanitarian crisis is underscored by the presence of approximately 1.5 million IDPs in North Kivu province alone, highlighting the severe impact of ongoing conflicts.

Masisi and Goma districts are anticipated to experience heightened risk levels due to the advancing position of M23 towards Goma. Walikale district, and others as detailed in the report, highlight particular areas where risk assessments may diverge from the overall threat environment, reflecting the localized nature of conflict dynamics. The outlook remains particularly uncertain in Lubero and Beni, where insufficient information or the potential for unforeseen events makes precise risk prediction challenging.

In response to these challenges, a strategic focus on countering M23's movements, addressing the escalating humanitarian crisis, and initiating dialogue with Rwanda is imperative. Such proactive measures are deemed essential for mitigating the immediate threats and fostering a more stable environment. Continuous monitoring and reassessment of the threat landscape are recommended, allowing for timely adjustments to strategy in response to evolving circumstances.